6.2 KiB
Venture Discovery Cohort V0.2 Report
This is the 10-company cohort report. The earlier docs/venture_discovery_v0_company_proposal.md is the single-company V0 memo.
Cohort
- Cohort ID:
VDV02-20260815142550-1fcf1933 - GraphRun:
1 - Companies:
10 - Total spend:
$0 - Customer outreach:
none - Evidence tier ceiling in this cohort:
TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE - Peak concurrency:
2 - Total public research queries:
10 - Total source-linked public evidence sources:
84 - Total model requests:
20 - Total cohort runtime:
1000.98s
Ranking
| Rank | Company | IC Score | Evidence-Adjusted P($500/30d) | Decision | Evidence Tier | Initial Tranche |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Compliance Changelog Briefs for Shopify App Developers | 61.2 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 2 | Local Permit Deadline Monitor | 68.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 3 | Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Desk | 68.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 4 | Emergency Client Portal Cleanup Sprint | 68.1 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 5 | RFP Deadline Radar | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 6 | Revenue Leak Snapshot for Local Service Businesses | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 7 | Local Permit Packet Concierge | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 8 | Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Kit | 65.1 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 9 | Emergency Founder Metrics Cleanup | 64.2 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 10 | Emergency Screenshot-to-SOP Service | 60.6 | 55% | REVISE_AND_RESUBMIT | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $0 |
Top 3 Finalists
1. Compliance Changelog Briefs for Shopify App Developers
Thesis: Sell fast, human-edited weekly compliance-change briefs to small Shopify app developers who cannot afford legal monitoring but need to avoid platform or privacy-policy surprises.
Why ranked highly: Best portfolio score after balancing IC score, capped probability, capability burden, and lower collision risk.
Biggest risk: Requires a reliable ongoing source-monitoring and compliance interpretation workflow; legal/compliance positioning must avoid legal advice.
Initial tranche: $10
Validation condition: Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.
2. Local Permit Deadline Monitor
Thesis: Sell small landlords a $49 same-day audit that identifies upcoming rental registration, inspection, and permit deadlines using only public municipal data.
Why ranked highly: Strong IC score and clear urgency around deadlines, despite higher collision risk with other local/permit ideas.
Biggest risk: Local regulatory variation and legal/compliance boundaries.
Initial tranche: $10
Validation condition: Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.
3. Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Desk
Thesis: A same-day service that fixes broken, slow, or confusing business spreadsheets for solo operators and small teams at a premium urgent-support price.
Why ranked highly: Clear route to first cash, low build requirement, and broadly understandable pain.
Biggest risk: Crowded freelancer/service alternatives and trust-building for urgent work.
Initial tranche: $10
Validation condition: Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.
Collision Analysis
| Classification | Count |
|---|---|
| NONE | 7 |
| ADJACENT | 38 |
| COMPETITIVE | 0 |
| NEAR_DUPLICATE | 0 |
| DUPLICATE | 0 |
No companies were automatically killed or merged.
Portfolio Concentration
Concentration flags surfaced by Portfolio IC:
6/10companies classified as general business.9/10companies use a productized-service business model.7/10companies rely primarily on outbound/community distribution.10/10companies depend on the same core Company Mode infrastructure categories.
Industry distribution:
- shopify/ecommerce:
3 - general business:
6 - developer tools:
1
Business model distribution:
- productized service:
9 - hybrid:
1
Primary channel distribution:
- outbound/community:
7 - direct:
1 - content/SEO:
1 - marketplace:
1
Capability Demand
| Capability | Needed By | Earliest Stage | Status Distribution | Top 3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| outbound sales | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| CRM | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| company budget management | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| payments | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| invoicing | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| legal/compliance | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| customer support | 10/10 | BEFORE_SCALING | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| Board | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| IC | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| WEB_MARKET_RESEARCH | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 6, PARTIAL: 4 | 3 |
| software build | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| frontend design | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| deployment | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | PARTIAL: 10 | 3 |
| Company Brain | 10/10 | BEFORE_SCALING | PARTIAL: 10 | 3 |
Top 3 Critical Capability Gaps
- outbound sales
- CRM
- company budget management
Additional Top 3 gaps:
- payments
- invoicing
- legal/compliance
- customer support
Recommended Next Artifex Builds
- outbound sales
- CRM
- company budget management
- payments
- invoicing
System Metrics
- Total model requests:
20 - Total tokens:
0reported by provider metadata - Total public research queries:
10 - Total sources:
84 - Total cohort runtime:
1000.98s - Peak concurrency:
2 - Real spend:
$0 - Customer outreach:
none
Notes
The evidence-adjusted probability is capped at 55% because every company reached only TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE. No direct customer signal, willingness-to-pay, paid customer, or repeatable traction was collected in V0.2.