Artifex/docs/venture_discovery_cohort_v02_report.md

# Venture Discovery Cohort V0.2 Report

This is the 10-company cohort report. The earlier `docs/venture_discovery_v0_company_proposal.md` is the single-company V0 memo.

## Cohort

- Cohort ID: `VDV02-20260815142550-1fcf1933`
- GraphRun: `1`
- Companies: `10`
- Total spend: `$0`
- Customer outreach: `none`
- Evidence tier ceiling in this cohort: `TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE`
- Peak concurrency: `2`
- Total public research queries: `10`
- Total source-linked public evidence sources: `84`
- Total model requests: `20`
- Total cohort runtime: `1000.98s`

## Ranking

| Rank | Company | IC Score | Evidence-Adjusted P($500/30d) | Decision | Evidence Tier | Initial Tranche |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | ---: |
| 1 | Compliance Changelog Briefs for Shopify App Developers | 61.2 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 2 | Local Permit Deadline Monitor | 68.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 3 | Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Desk | 68.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 4 | Emergency Client Portal Cleanup Sprint | 68.1 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 5 | RFP Deadline Radar | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 6 | Revenue Leak Snapshot for Local Service Businesses | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 7 | Local Permit Packet Concierge | 65.8 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 8 | Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Kit | 65.1 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 9 | Emergency Founder Metrics Cleanup | 64.2 | 55% | CONDITIONAL_FUND | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $10 |
| 10 | Emergency Screenshot-to-SOP Service | 60.6 | 55% | REVISE_AND_RESUBMIT | TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE | $0 |

## Top 3 Finalists

### 1. Compliance Changelog Briefs for Shopify App Developers

**Thesis:** Sell fast, human-edited weekly compliance-change briefs to small Shopify app developers who cannot afford legal monitoring but need to avoid platform or privacy-policy surprises.

**Why ranked highly:** Best portfolio score after balancing IC score, capped probability, capability burden, and lower collision risk.

**Biggest risk:** Requires a reliable ongoing source-monitoring and compliance interpretation workflow; legal/compliance positioning must avoid legal advice.

**Initial tranche:** `$10`

**Validation condition:** Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.

### 2. Local Permit Deadline Monitor

**Thesis:** Sell small landlords a `$49` same-day audit that identifies upcoming rental registration, inspection, and permit deadlines using only public municipal data.

**Why ranked highly:** Strong IC score and clear urgency around deadlines, despite higher collision risk with other local/permit ideas.

**Biggest risk:** Local regulatory variation and legal/compliance boundaries.

**Initial tranche:** `$10`

**Validation condition:** Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.

### 3. Emergency Spreadsheet Fix Desk

**Thesis:** A same-day service that fixes broken, slow, or confusing business spreadsheets for solo operators and small teams at a premium urgent-support price.

**Why ranked highly:** Clear route to first cash, low build requirement, and broadly understandable pain.

**Biggest risk:** Crowded freelancer/service alternatives and trust-building for urgent work.

**Initial tranche:** `$10`

**Validation condition:** Obtain 5 credible target-customer responses or 1 explicit willingness-to-pay signal before any build or further spend.

## Collision Analysis

| Classification | Count |
| --- | ---: |
| NONE | 7 |
| ADJACENT | 38 |
| COMPETITIVE | 0 |
| NEAR_DUPLICATE | 0 |
| DUPLICATE | 0 |

No companies were automatically killed or merged.

## Portfolio Concentration

Concentration flags surfaced by Portfolio IC:

- `6/10` companies classified as general business.
- `9/10` companies use a productized-service business model.
- `7/10` companies rely primarily on outbound/community distribution.
- `10/10` companies depend on the same core Company Mode infrastructure categories.

Industry distribution:

- shopify/ecommerce: `3`
- general business: `6`
- developer tools: `1`

Business model distribution:

- productized service: `9`
- hybrid: `1`

Primary channel distribution:

- outbound/community: `7`
- direct: `1`
- content/SEO: `1`
- marketplace: `1`

## Capability Demand

| Capability | Needed By | Earliest Stage | Status Distribution | Top 3 Count |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | ---: |
| outbound sales | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| CRM | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| company budget management | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| payments | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| invoicing | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| legal/compliance | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| customer support | 10/10 | BEFORE_SCALING | MISSING: 10 | 3 |
| Board | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| IC | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| WEB_MARKET_RESEARCH | 10/10 | BEFORE_VALIDATION | AVAILABLE: 6, PARTIAL: 4 | 3 |
| software build | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| frontend design | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | AVAILABLE: 10 | 3 |
| deployment | 10/10 | BEFORE_FIRST_CUSTOMER | PARTIAL: 10 | 3 |
| Company Brain | 10/10 | BEFORE_SCALING | PARTIAL: 10 | 3 |

## Top 3 Critical Capability Gaps

1. outbound sales
2. CRM
3. company budget management

Additional Top 3 gaps:

- payments
- invoicing
- legal/compliance
- customer support

## Recommended Next Artifex Builds

1. outbound sales
2. CRM
3. company budget management
4. payments
5. invoicing

## System Metrics

- Total model requests: `20`
- Total tokens: `0` reported by provider metadata
- Total public research queries: `10`
- Total sources: `84`
- Total cohort runtime: `1000.98s`
- Peak concurrency: `2`
- Real spend: `$0`
- Customer outreach: `none`

## Notes

The evidence-adjusted probability is capped at `55%` because every company reached only `TIER_1_PUBLIC_EVIDENCE`. No direct customer signal, willingness-to-pay, paid customer, or repeatable traction was collected in V0.2.